From the game
to your lineup.

1. 01Game simulation

   Simulate

   Praedictum simulates each game play by play, not each player alone — when a quarterback and his top receiver connect, it happens inside the same simulated game, together, thousands of times over.

   On any simulated Sunday, one play call decides who gets the target — if the WR1 catches it, the tight end didn't, the same real trade-off a defense forces. A quarterback's yards and touchdowns are literally the sum of what his receivers caught; there's no separate quarterback distribution that could disagree with them. Praedictum runs thousands of these Sundays, and the same seed reproduces the same Sunday, bit for bit, on any machine.

   

2. 02Player forecasts

   Forecast

   Every player's projection is opportunity times efficiency — expected touches, and what he does with each one — shrunk toward what similar players usually do, and reported with a spread, never a single number.

   Praedictum builds projections for running backs, receivers and tight ends; quarterbacks and defenses come out of the game simulation itself, not a standalone projection. Kickers aren't part of this format at all.

3. 03The modeled field

   Model the field

   Ownership — the share of the contest expected to roster each player — builds a simulated crowd of thousands of opposing lineups, which is then checked for how many would have built the exact same lineup you did.

   The crowd is built one entry at a time — pick a quarterback by ownership, decide whether this entry stacks with him, fill the rest — then checked against DraftKings' own roster rules before it counts. Two of the inputs that control how the crowd behaves are supplied by an analyst with a stated reason, not a hidden default.

4. 04Lineup search

   Optimize

   An exact solver searches every legal lineup under the salary cap and the roster rules — rules checked field by field against DraftKings' own published rules page — and returns the best one it can find, honoring your locks and excludes.

   Locks and excludes are hard rules, not preferences the model can override, and they're kept separate from DraftKings' own game locks (a game that has already kicked off). Unverified rule sets exist for experiments, but a lineup built under one carries that label all the way to the export file.

5. 05Portfolio choice

   Portfolio

   A whole slate of lineups is chosen as a set — rewarding upside across the group and limiting how much of it leans on any one player — then compared against entering your single best lineup that many times over.

   The comparison runs on the same simulated Sundays for every lineup in the set — a fix that closed a real gap where a group-level result could have quietly used a different Sunday for each lineup without anyone noticing.

None of this has been checked yet against a real result. No full slate has been run end to end here, and there is no accuracy claim anywhere on this page — that evaluation is next.